They look and feel like old phone books, but don’t be fooled. Not all vintage Bill James Baseball Abstracts are alike. The sport changed, and so did James, sometimes for the better, sometimes not.
Take The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1984, where evergreen analysis and solid insights regarding the 1983 Major League season are undercut by a snarky, defensive tone. Was success spoiling Mr. James? Or was it not coming fast enough?
By this time, Bill James was well established as a baseball analyst, if not a household name. Baseball was more popular then, maybe as popular as it ever was, but the 1980s had been a tricky time (labor unrest) and were about to get much trickier (collusion, steroids). The players were fantastic, setting a standard for excellence that left the storied 1920s and 1930s in the shade. But the game itself lacked the drama of old.
James talks about how 1983 brought together some of the best leadoff men, shortstops, and relief pitchers ever, if with tepid results:
I enjoyed the 1983 season, but it certainly was not a memorable or brilliant season. We have no great teams; we have some that might be forming, which is about as exciting, but none that are great now, no teams which expose the weaknesses of their opponents just by walking onto the field.
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| One of baseball's most memorable moments in 1983 came July 24, when Kansas City Royal George Brett was called out for hitting a homer after his bat was ruled to have too much pine tar on it. Here, Brett objects. GIF from https://www.pinterest.com/pin/67835538117192422/ |
The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1984 is that kind of book, decent enough by itself but disappointing only when compared with its predecessors. Its statistical formulas seem a tad more abstruse and less clever; the takes on players a mite more snide and rigid.
James himself seems a pill. He knows his work is raising the bar for understanding baseball, and seems impatient not everyone sees it his way, ripping old-school managers for being, well, old-school:
…other things being equal, a manager who has respect for knowledge is going to beat the crap out of a manager who doesn’t. And that’s why sabermetrics is an inevitable part of baseball’s future.
James announces some major developments in his work, including an assistant writer named Jim Baker and a personal computer, both firsts for the Abstract. Baker contributes a few pieces, but most of the content is distinctly Bill’s own. The computer seems to change nothing product-wise, but maybe he was still loading and coding then.
What we get is Bill James teeing off, something I enjoyed more in the past than I do here. He’s pretty annoyed about a lot of things. Sabermetrics, a. k. a. the study of baseball statistics, aren’t taken seriously enough, including by many sabermetricians. Too many ballclubs don’t change with the times. Too many bad players stay on rosters. That kind of thing.
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| Omar Moreno of the Pittsburgh Pirates, seen sliding here, draws James' ire: "Unless Buddy Biancalana happens to make the Royals, Omar Moreno is the
worst player in the major leagues." Image from https://www.sportsmemorabilia.com/pittsburgh-pirates/autographed-omar-moreno-photo-8x10/t-14563324+p-89444284299914+z-9-4037649988?_ref=p-PDP:m-YMAL:pi-PDP_RECOMMENDATIONS_2:i-r0c7:po-7 |
He’s also got some minor setbacks to deal with, like a claim he made back in 1982 on NBC-TV’s “Today” show that he devised a method for predicting that year’s World Series. Which he then got wrong.
In the 1983 Abstract he predicted the Baltimore Orioles would collapse after firing manager Earl Weaver; they won the World Series instead.
James’ response to the latter contretemps is wonderful, and a reason I love reading him so much. He analyzes the outcome by comparing it to two other teams that won World Championships after firing legendary managers, the 1961 New York Yankees (Casey Stengel) and the 1933 New York Giants (John McGraw).
All three titan field marshals were known to play epic mind games on their players, James notes. Maybe that was what happened here:
I think that one of the key factors in the Yankees’ 1961 season was that the players were reacting to the release from the pressure of that insecurity, just as the Orioles in 1983 reacted positively to escaping the pressure of life with Earl.
James adds the Orioles won’t continue this winning for long, not given how the 1960s Yankees and 1930s Giants turned out. He was right.
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| Yankee manager Billy Martin, seen here arguing with umpire Durwood Merrill. James asks what Martin would be doing if not managing, and answers: "Fifteen to life." Image from https://www.wsj.com/articles/book-review-billy-martin-baseballs-flawed-genius-by-bill-pennington-1428089020 |
James is not as deft at explaining why his “World Series Prediction System” was so off; he wastes many pages of dull prose insisting this system works, explaining clunky variables. He also takes actual World Series results and works backwards. Even I, a math moron, knows this is not playing fair, but James insists it all flows like clockwork.
Other logic-begging arguments pop up in the Baseball Abstract 1984: “Why do teams with high batting averages do poorly in World Series play? A simple reason: it takes them too many hits to score.” Huh?
For all its fractured methodology, the Baseball Abstract 1984 is a pleasant, diverting, nostalgic look through a baseball season of no particular consequence. James may not have as much to say, but he still offers up some gems.
Such as the lack of correlation between those teams producing the most good players and the most winning seasons. Or how the San Diego Padres would have won their division and the Houston Astros finished last had the two middling teams just exchanged their middle infielders.
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| Dale Murphy of the Atlanta Braves was named National League Most Valuable Player for the second consecutive year in 1983. Observing a trend with back-to-back winners, James predicts a 15% falloff in production for Murphy in 1984, which is exactly what happened. Image from https://www.foxsports.com/south/story/dale-murphy-hof-modern-baseball-era-ballot-110617 |
Did you ever notice there are so few memorable position players with a last name beginning with the letter N? True then, and still today. James can only name one (the Padres’ Graig Nettles); none are in the Hall of Fame. (Otis Nixon, a rookie in 1983, is the only star I can even name.)
Ben Ogilvy of the Milwaukee Brewers was surrounded by great hitters, including a league RBI leader and three future Hall of Famers, but drove in a higher percentage of game-clinching runs than anyone in 1983.
James examines this as part of a new formula he was devising around RBI importance. Like with the World Series Prediction System, it takes longer to explain than the results merit, but I found his approach here more engaging if overlong, and up to his usual standard for analysis.
He also makes some good calls. “If anybody offers you 100 odds against the Chicago Cubs winning the National League East in 1984, take him up on it.” They did win the division, and nearly the league, jumping from fifth place and reversing five years of sub-.500 play.
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| One reason James believed in the Cubs' future was their acquisition of pitcher Rick Sutcliffe, above. Sutcliffe led the Cubs to the division championship in 1984, winning the Cy Young Award. James notes: "The Cubs have taken steps this winter to solidify their pitching, something that almost all miracle teams do." Image from https://cubbiescrib.com/2019/02/10/chicago-cubs-heroes-rick-sutcliffe/ |
Rickey Henderson of the Oakland A’s was setting records for basestealing in the early 1980s; James points out just how amazing he was in 1983 by calling out his run total (30.8) per 100 outs made:
Lou Brock’s best figure ever was 25.7 in 1971… and his career mark was just 21.8. Rickey also was the best leadoff man in the majors in 1982, and then he was getting in position to score just 26.4 runs per 100 outs. [Harold] Raines’ 28.8 is a terrific figure; Rickey’s 30.8 is, while not a record, the sign of a historic year.
Henderson set the modern single-season record for swipes in 1982, which still stands, so you figure that had to be his best year. James lays out the case for why his 1983 season was even better.
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| Rickey Henderson on the run. James names him the third best leftfielder in 1983, and the top leadoff hitter: "We are living in the age of the great leadoff men, and I think it's important to appreciate that." Image from http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/throwback/201508/rickey-henderson-season-record-stolen-bases-lou-brock |
Early in the book, James has a line about how too many experts claim to offer an inside perspective on baseball. “Let us stop pretending to be insiders if we’re not,” he writes. Despite his own proclaimed outsider status, James was an insider, not just regarding getting inside the numbers of the game but finding his way into the sports’ boardrooms.
By the time of the Baseball Abstract 1984’s publication, he advised players and executives on contract negotiations and contributed essays to national magazines. For the former cannery security guard, it may have gone to his head.
Maybe I just read it a less happy mindset than his prior Abstracts, but his writing here has a harder, stuck-up tone. For example, he introduces his assistant Baker, only to curb-stomp him in print when Baker ventures to declare Wade Boggs an all-time great. It’s a weird, wanton moment of hubris; I am not surprised Baker didn’t return for later Abstracts.
James also lays into players and managers he doesn’t like, claiming it is nothing personal even as his tone suggests otherwise. He brags how he once ticked off Enos Cabell: “Everybody tells me that Enos is a hell of a good guy, and you know, you can tell he is. His abilities being what they are, would he be in the major leagues if he wasn’t?”
Or regarding Al Cowens: “Had a worse year than a biker in a Clint Eastwood movie.”
James was often funny like this. His tone just wasn’t so mean.
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| James on Seattle Mariners shortstop Spike Owens: "It seems like a shame to waste such a good baseball nickname on somebody
who is going to be out of the league in two years." Owen played until 1995. Image from https://marinersblog.mlblogs.com/seattle-mariners-podcast-spike-owen-6e1100a849c6 |
Sections in the 1984 Abstract include lengthy analyses of each team and capsule takes on most position players. Pitchers get only one or two lines at most, which annoyed me. Team write ups for the American League include long pullout sections on their respective managers, and these are often quite good, maybe the best parts of the entire book.
On the other hand, team write-ups can be very weak by James’ standard; some squads get nothing from him. His entire write-up for the Texas Rangers is free-association about baserunning being difficult to rate and says next to nothing about the Rangers; other teams get short shrift, too.
All
in all, Baseball Abstract 1983 is hit and miss, unusually too much of
the latter for James, whose surly attitude makes this more of a drain.
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